Five‑Year Unified Risk Prediction Model for Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Based on Nationwide Health Check‑Up Data in Japan: J‑GESS Score

Cancer research · Gastric cancer

A unified risk prediction model for gastric cancer (GC) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) that predicts the 5‑year incidence of these cancers in Japan.

In Japan, gastric cancer (GC) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) account for nearly all fatal upper gastrointestinal malignancies. A unified model that simultaneously predicts the incidence of these two cancers could help optimize endoscopic screening and post‑index surveillance strategies. We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of 33 942 individuals who underwent screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) at 17 health‑checkup institutions in Japan. Clinical and endoscopic data from the index EGD were used to develop a 5‑year risk prediction model for GC or ESCC. Independent predictors included older age, male sex, ever smoking, and endoscopic gastric mucosal atrophy. The model showed good calibration and robust discrimination (Harrell's c = 0.81). The J‑GESS score enables effective risk stratification and may inform post‑index endoscopic surveillance and screening‑interval optimization.

Combining the prediction of GC and ESCC provides clinicians with a single tool to identify high‑risk individuals for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy screening and to tailor surveillance intervals, thereby improving early detection and resource allocation.

Evidence level: Korai humán adat. Kis vagy feltáró emberi adat.

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